By John Ikani
The United States set a new record, shipping a massive 6.1 million metric tons of thermal coal to Africa in the first eight months of 2024.
The coal, primarily used for power generation and industrial purposes, represents an 83% increase compared to the same period in 2023. This surge established the U.S. as Africa’s leading thermal coal supplier, capturing a record 64% share of the continent’s total imports.
Coupled with 11.1 million tons exported to Asia, the top U.S. coal market, these shipments to Africa pushed total U.S. coal exports to the third highest level ever recorded for the first eight months of a year.
This sustained high level of coal exports challenges U.S. and global efforts to reduce coal usage in power generation due to its significantly higher emissions compared to other fossil fuels.
The continued high level of U.S. coal exports could trigger backlash from international climate advocates who expect the United States to take a leading role in curbing coal sales and use.
This year marks the second consecutive year that U.S. exports have surpassed 22 million tons by September. This suggests that the country’s annual coal exports are on track to achieve the second or third-highest year ever for coal shipments. The country’s record coal export of 39.1 million tons was set in 2018 and is unlikely to be surpassed in 2024.
India, the world’s second-largest coal user for power generation, emerged as the top overall market for U.S. thermal coal this year, importing 7.3 million tons from January to August.
Morocco and Egypt followed as the next largest markets, accounting for 3 million and 2.9 million tons of coal, respectively. China (1.8 million tons), The Netherlands (1.4 million tons), and Japan (875,000 tons) were the subsequent largest destinations for U.S. coal this year.
African nations imported a total of 9.48 million tons of thermal coal from January to August. While this figure is 0.5% lower than the same period in 2023, it still represents the third-highest on record for the continent, highlighting Africa as a crucial market for coal exporters.
Over the past two years, Africa’s coal imports have grown by 12%. Africa and Asia are the only major regions showing an increase in thermal coal imports since 2022. In contrast, imports into Europe, North America, and Oceania have all decreased by at least 20% during the same timeframe.
Morocco, Africa’s top coal importer, primarily uses coal for power generation, with coal accounting for approximately 64% of the country’s electricity. Egypt, while lacking coal-fired power plants, utilizes thermal coal in cement production and other industrial processes requiring affordable heat.
South Africa is Africa’s largest coal consumer by a significant margin but remains a relatively small importer due to its substantial local coal production. Other notable African coal consumers for industry and power include Zimbabwe, Botswana, and Zambia, all of which are landlocked and primarily rely on trucked coal from South Africa or local production.
This situation positions Morocco and Egypt in North Africa as the most attractive options for seaborne coal exporters aiming to expand their market share in Africa. These countries are particularly appealing to U.S. suppliers due to the relatively short journey across the Atlantic to reach coal ports in the region.
The sailing time for a bulk vessel transporting coal from Baltimore, the primary U.S. coal export port, to Casablanca’s bulk terminal in Morocco is just under 11 days. This journey is nearly a week shorter than the route from South Africa, giving Moroccan buyers quicker access to sellers in North America compared to those on the same continent.
U.S. exporters can also deliver coal to Morocco faster than sellers in Colombia and Russia, solidifying their position as a key supplier. Morocco imports approximately 750,000 tons of thermal coal per month.
The journey to Egypt from Baltimore takes an additional six days, representing a longer commitment for U.S. exporters. Egypt’s average import volume is also considerably lower than Morocco’s, at around 400,000 tons per month so far in 2024.
However, this import average is 100,000 tons per month higher than in 2023, suggesting that Egypt’s overall demand for coal has grown by over 30% this year. In contrast, Morocco’s monthly demand for thermal coal is about 8% lower than the 2023 average, indicating that Morocco’s total coal needs may have already peaked.
For coal exporters seeking to maximize sales volumes, Egypt presents a rare opportunity and a potential gateway to other rapidly growing economies in North Africa that require affordable fuels for power and industry.
These growth trends may conflict with the stated U.S. goals of reducing global coal consumption. However, as long as international demand for coal persists, U.S. exporters will remain in a strong position to fulfill it, particularly in nearby markets.
